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Daily Report: Consolidations Continue, Focus on German Vote and Italian Bond SalesMarkets are lacking a clear direction in near term as consolidations continue. DOW ended a three day winning streak by dropping -180 pts overnight and triggered mild strength in the greenback. But there was no follow through buying in dollar in Asia session today as stocks recover from early losses. Dollar index is finding some strong resistance from 78 level in near term. Gold breached 1600 level briefly today too but quickly recovered and is trading above this psychological level for the time being. Crude oil is also hovering around 80 level in spite of the sharp dip overnight. It's likely that more consolidation would be seen as quarter end approaches. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.31; (P) 103.91; (R1) 104.32; More With 103.00 minor support intact, EUR/JPY's recovery from 101.93 might extend further. But after all, it's treated as a correction in the larger decline only. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited by 106.98 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 103.00 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 101.93 and then 100 psychological level. |
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| Special Report |
ECB To Cut Or Not?The annual World Bank/IMF meeting indeed showed some influences by urging European leaders to deliver more effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis engulfing the Eurozone. Apart from heightening speculations for an expansion and leverage of the new EFSF, hopes loomed for the ECB to cut interest rates, as soon as at the meeting next week, in addition to other easing measures including re-launch of the covered bond purchase program and reintroduction of the 12-month loans for the region's banks. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to an intra-day low of 1.3520, the single currency found good support there and has rebounded on active buying by Japanese names in EUR/JPY and stops at 1.3590-1.3600 were tripped, offers at 1.3620-30 were then filled with more stops seen above 1.3645/50 and further out at 1.3700. On the downside, bids from same parties remain at 1.3580, 1.3550 and also 1.3520 (large) with stops building up below there, 1.3500 and 1.3480. Focus today is definitely on German parliament vote on the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) (start from 07:00GMT and result should come around 11:00GMT), traders are betting Merkel's coalition will gather enough support to pass the bill. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8890Although the greenback broke above previous resistance at 0.9001, lack of follow through and the subsequent retreat after faltering below the flat Kumo top suggest near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.9183 (last week’s high) to bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 0.8890/95 (50% projection of 0.9144-0.8925 measuring from 0.9001), however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to support at 0.8886, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.36Despite dollar’s weakness versus other major currencies, cross-selling in Japanese yen limited downside here so far and further consolidation would take place but as long as support at 76.10 holds, prospect of another rebound remains but break of indicated strong resistance at 76.97-77.00 is needed to suggest low is possibly formed and bring test of previous resistance at 77.34. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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