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Daily Report: ECB, BoE, Obama, Bernanke Watched TodayOther than some employment data triggered weakness in Aussie, markets are generally steady in Asia today. Investors are holding their breath ahead of some key events. ECB meeting will be a main focus. It's widely expected that the bank will keep rates unchanged at 1.50%. Trichet will have his second last press conference before he steps down in November. The focus will be on whether ECB would turn more dovish on growth and would there be downward revision in staff projections on growth and inflation. In additional, Trichet's comment on bond buying, in particular Italy and Spain, would be closely watched. At the moment, like others in the markets, we're expecting ECB to be hold through through 2012. However, markets could start to price in rate cut from ECB, based on worsening sovereign crisis as well as deteriorating growth out look, should Trichet starts to turn dovish. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0434; (P) 1.0530; (R1) 1.0580; More Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're still favoring the case that corrective rebound from 0.9926 is over with three waves up to 1.0764. Hence, we'd expect the current recovery to be limited below 1.0764 and bring another fall. Below 1.0481 will target 1.0314 support first. Break will target a test on 0.9926 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.0764 will invalidate this view and bring stronger rise towards 1.1079 high instead. |
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BoC Leaves Overnight Rate Unchanged, Removes Tightening RhetoricAs expected, the BOC decided to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1% and correspondingly, Bank Rate and the deposit rate at 1.25% and 0.75% respectively. The accompanying statement delivered a less hawkish tone than before. As global economic has deteriorated in recent weeks and total CPI inflation will continue to moderate as temporary factors unwind, the central bank believed the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has 'diminished'. Central Bank Forecasts: ECB Remains on Hold Through 2012After rate hikes in April and July (each by +25 bps), ECB's main refinancing rate is now at 1.5%. We expect the central bank will remain on hold through 2012 given weakened growth and inflation outlook. Recent macroeconomic data have been disappointing. Eurozone's GDP growth eased to +0.2% q/q in 2Q11 from +0.8% in the prior quarter. Germany's economy expanded only +0.1% q/q while growth in France stalled. Manufacturing activities have shown signs of fatigue with manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.7 in August from 50.4 a month ago. while consumer confidence soured as there's no way out for the sovereign debt crisis. ZEW's survey showed that Eurozone's economic sentiment tumbled to -40 in August from -7 a month ago. The market had expected a pickup to -6.2. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8440Despite yesterday’s rebound from 0.8540, the greenback needs to penetrate this week’s high of 0.8630 to confirm recent upmove from record low of 0.7068 has resumed and extend gain to 0.8650, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.8700 and reckon 0.8750 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a correction to take place later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday’s retreat to 77.07, reckon resistance at 77.74 would limit upside and bring further consolidation, below said support would bring weakness to 76.72, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around support area at 76.42-53 and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 77.74 would extend the rise from 75.94 record low for a stronger retracement of recent downtrend to resistance at 77.86, then 78.00/05 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The trading range in EUR/USD is getting narrower as some traders await ECB rate decision (11:45GMT) and more importantly Trichet's press conference (12:30GMT), bids are still noted at 1.4000-10 and also above this week's low of 1.3972 with stops building up below there and also 1.3950 but more buying interest is tipped further out at 1.3900 (option trigger). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.4100-10 and 1.4140-50 with stops placed above latter level. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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