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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers Mildly, But Still Heavy on Sovereign Debt CrisisEuro recovers mildly in early US session after being pressured for most of the day but remains vulnerable. Worries on Greek default is the main theme as Germany is believed to be giving up on Greece and is preparing for impact of Greek default on German banking sector. Greece 2 year yield jumped to above 60% for the first time on record while German 10 year bund yield fell to another record low. In addition, there are fresh concerns on banking sector in France as stocks of the large banks, including BNP Paribas and Societe Generale tumble today on a possible ratings cut by Moody's on their Greek bonds holdings. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8735; (P) 0.8800; (R1) 0.8894; More... USD/CHF loses some up side momentum after hitting 100% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710. But with 0.8705 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally is still expected, towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.9020, which is close to 0.9 psychological level). Break will pave the way to 0.9916 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 0.8705 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 0.8246 resistance turned support and bring another rise. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Stark's Shocking Departure Should Not Affect ECB's Decision MakingThe ECB announced in a statement last Friday that Jürgen Stark, after being a member of the Executive Board and Governing Council of the central bank since June 2006, will resign before the end of his term of office on May 31, 2014 due to 'personal reason. It's also stated that Stark will stay in his current position until a successor is appointed. According to the appointment procedure, it will be by the end of this year. The euro slumped after the news, plummeting as much as -1.8% against USD at one point, amid worries about ECB's monetary stance in the future. We believe Stark's resignation would not affect the central bank's future strategies as all decisions will be based on the mandate to maintain price stability across the Eurozone. China Watch: Moderation in Inflation not Strong Enough to Trigger Monetary EasingModeration of headline CPI to +6.2% y/y in August from +6.5% in the prior month signaled that inflation in China probably peaked in July. Yet, price levels remained elevated and it would be premature to expect China will abandon tightening or even shift to easing monetary policy. Growth of industrial production and fixed asset investment and retail sales decelerated further in August as a result of government's tightening measures. Yet, the rate of expansion remained resilient despite recent global economic turmoil. We expect to see further slowdown in economic activities in coming months but do not envisage any signs of hard landing. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5965Cable’s rebound after intra-day fall to 1.5793 suggests a minor low is formed there and near term upside risk remains, break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5884) would bring retracement to 1.5910/15, however, upside should be limited to 1.5973 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6084-1.5793) and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5991) should hold, bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from 1.6618 to previous support at 1.5781 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0430The Australian dollar tumbled last week in line with our expectation, adding credence to our view that b leg rebound from 0.9927 has possibly ended at 1.0721 and weakness towards 1.0230 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9927-1.0721) would be seen, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0110/15 and risk has increased for a rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Although the greenback dropped sharply earlier in Asian session, dollar found decent demand from Japanese bank and lifted the pair from 76.75 back above 77.00 level. Good size bids from same name are still noted at 76.75/80 with stops placed below 76.70 but more buying interest is likely to emerge further out at 76.50. Option expiries today include 77.25 and 77.50 (400 mln) which are seen to be supporting dollar's downside and magnet effect from the two option is likely to push dollar higher from current level. Having said that, exporters' offers are reported at 77.60-70 level with mixture of offers and stops remain at 77.90-78.00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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