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Daily Report: Concern on European Sovereign Crisis Sends Gold to Record High, Dollar FirmConcerns over European sovereign crisis continue to wait on market sentiments and support dollar and yen. Funds continue to flow into safe haven assets, pushing gold to new record high against dollar and euro. Dollar index's break of 75.38 resistance suggests more upside in the greenback in near term. Asian equities are broadly lower with Japanese Nikkei closed at the lowest level since April 2009. Meanwhile, German bund yields extends recent decline and reached new all time low of 1.799%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4045; (P) 1.4109 (R1) 1.4158; More. EUR/USD's fall from 1.4548 extends further to as low as 1.4038 and breaks mentioned 1.4054 support. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should now be seen towards 1.3837 support next. On the upside, above 1.4175 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But after all, as long as 1.4548 resistance holds, consolidations from 1.4939 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would be seen in near term. |
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RBA Stands Still As Global Market Uncertainty Increases And Inflation Risks RemainsAs expected the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% in September. The initial market reaction was a rebound in the Aussie as the post-meeting statement turned out to be less dovish than previously anticipated. The central bank attributed the pause to the growing uncertainty in global economic outlook. Recent developments have damped confidence and tamed inflation. Against some of the market participants' forecasts, the RBA did not hint any signs on rate cut. BOC Withholds From Signaling TighteningRecent headwind in global economic outlook should deter BOC's tightening schedule. We believe the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% in September. Indeed, Fed's decision to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least until mid-2013 and the increasing downside risks to inflation signaled the BOC will leave the overnight rate unchanged at least until mid -2012. That said, it's also unlikely for the central bank to trim interest rates as headline inflation remains high and the job market is robust. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6250Despite intra-day retreat to 1.6066, as the British pound has rebounded after holding above yesterday’s low at 1.6061, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6124) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.6189-93) but renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6255-58 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6455-1.6061) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.55Despite yesterday’s rebound to 76.99, as the greenback met heavy offers there and has retreated, suggesting further consolidation would take place but as long as indicated support at 76.42 holds, prospect of another rebound remains. Above said resistance would bring test of previous resistance at 77.25, however, a sustained break of this level is needed to suggest the retreat from 77.70 has possibly ended and bring further gain towards 77.70. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchAUD: The Australian dollar extended recent decline below 1.0500 just before RBA rate announcement, not much reaction after RBA left rates unchanged but rumors of Australian bank’s downgrading seemed hurting aussie. Offers from various parties are noted from 1.0530 up to 1.0550 and mixture of offers and stops is seen further out at 1.0585-95. On the downside, stops are located at 1.0490 and also below 1.0450 but bids are likely to emerge around 1.0400-10 where more stops are tipped below. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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