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Daily Report: Risks Sold Off as EcoFin Disappointed, China Wen Pledged to Fight InflationRisk markets suffer a steep selloff as the week starts on disappointment from the ECOFIN meeting last week failed to deliver additional measures to resolve the sovereign debt problems. In addition, comments from China Premier Wen revives concern that China is not done with tightening yet. China's Shanghai Composite drops to 14 month low on deterioration in sentiments. Aussie is hit hard by the turn in risk sentiments as well as weakness in China stocks. Also, traders are cautious ahead of tomorrow's RBA minutes on possibility, even though slim, of discussion of rate cuts. Sterling breached last week's low against dollar as traders are awaiting this week's BoE minutes for details of the debate on additional quantitative easing from the central bank. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0301; (P) 1.0349; (R1) 1.0405; More AUD/USD opens sharply lower today and the development suggests that choppy recovery from 1.0177 might have finished at 1.0379 after failing to take out 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 1.0177 first. Break will resume the whole fall from 1.0764. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.9926 is already completed with three waves up to 1.0764. Current decline should head for a retest on 0.9926 support. On the upside, above 1.0397 will turn bias neutral again. But we'll stay cautiously bearish in near term as long as 1.0481 resistance holds. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.45Although the greenback rebounded after holding above previous support at 76.56, as long as resistance at 77.34 holds, near term downside risk remains for another decline, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, downside would be limited to previous support at 76.42 and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would suggest low is formed and bring a stronger rebound to 77.60/65, above there would signal retreat from 77.86 has ended and bring a retest of this level, then towards 78.00/05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12-75.94). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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