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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm ahead of FOMC, Sterling Down after BoE MinutesDollar strengths mildly today as global stocks are mildly softer ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC announcement. It's widely expected policymakers will announce something called 'operation twist' -increasing the average maturity of securities holdings by swapping holdings of lower maturities Treasuries with longer ones, after the 2-day meeting. Compared with outright bond purchases (QE3), one advantage of operation twist is that the size of the Fed's balance sheet would remain unchanged and is less unlikely to invoke inflation. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5678; (P) 1.5713; (R1) 1.5770; More. GBP/USD's fall resumes after brief consolidations and drops to as low as 1.5591 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further decline should be seen to next key medium term support at 1.5344. On the upside, above 1.5747 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, lengthier consolidation would be seen before GBP/USD stages another decline. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound lost ground in London session speculation of a possible expansion of QEP in Q4 (one even talks about Oct) after the release of dovish BOE minutes, cable broke below 1.5600 to an intra-day low of 1.5590, stops below 1.5630 and 1.5600 were triggered, U.S. investment banks were seen selling sterling aggressively in London session. More stops are reported at 1.5580 and 1.5550 with some fair size bids seen above there. On the upside, offers are still noted from 1.5650 up to 1.5680 and mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.5700-10 but sizeable stops only emerging above 1.5750/55 and 1.5780. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3700As the single currency has retreated after faltering below yesterday’s high of 1.3745, retaining our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards this week’s low of 1.3586, however, break there is needed to extend the fall from 1.3937 to indicated previous support at 1.3556-58 but a drop below there is needed to confirm correction from 1.3495 has ended and bring resumption of early decline for a retest of 1.3495. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0450As the Australian dollar has rebounded after falling to 1.0148 yesterday, suggesting consolidation above there would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 1.0340/50 and possibly towards 1.0399, however, price should falter well below previous support at 1.0482 and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.0148 would extend the fall from 1.0765 (b leg top) to minor support at 1.0110/15 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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