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Daily Report: Markets Steady as Consolidations Continue, Spain Bond Auction WatchedMarkets generally remain in consolidation mode so far today. Euro extends recovery after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy reassured their commitment to help Greece. Also, both expressed they're "convinced" that Greece will stay in the eurozone. Meanwhile, Greece Prime Minister Papandreou also reiterated the commitment to meet the deficit reduction targets of the bailout. Focus will now turn to Spain's bond auction today, where the country plans to sell as much as EUR 4b of bonds maturing in 2019 and 2020. Fitch downgraded five of Spain's region yesterday, citing "sharp fiscal deterioration" as reasons for the downgrade warned that "considerable efforts will still need to be undertaken by the regions, particularly in the area of cost controls." Attention will be on whether today's Spain auction would be as bad as the Italian ones earlier this week. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0180; (P) 1.0275; (R1) 1.0374; More With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place in AUD/USD at 1.0177. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations could be seen. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.0481 resistance and bring another fall. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.9926 has completed with three waves up to 1.0764.Below 1.0177 will bring retest of 0.9926 support first. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
RBNZ Will Probably Not Raise Interest Rates Until 2012The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and delivered a less hawkish statement in September. Where these have been widely expected, NZD fell after the announcement as the chance of a rate hike this year has markedly reduced given global economic uncertainty. The central bank also trimmed growth and inflation forecasts, signaled the macroeconomic shock in the US and Europe would have some impacts on New Zealand's path of recovery. SNB To Reiterate Unlimited Intervention To Prevent Excessive CHF AppreciationThe SNB meeting on Thursday will likely be reiteration on what was said on September 6, when the central bank drew a line in sand to curb Swiss franc's appreciation. We are, however, interested to see how the SNB would update the inflation forecasts. We expect to see downward revisions from 3 months ago given the recent global economic turmoil and strength in CHF. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8700Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday’s fall to 0.8729, as long as resistance at 0.8854 (yesterday’s high) holds, near term downside risk remains for the fall from this week’s high of 0.8927 to bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 0.8706 (previous support), however, reckon 0.8688 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8540 to 0.8927) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A breach of said resistance at 0.8854 would bring test of indicated resistance at 0.8880/85 but break there is needed to signal the pullback from 0.8927 has ended Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3820The single currency has continued to edge higher in line with our expectation in our previous updates, suggesting near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent decline to 1.3800, however, reckon 1.3820/25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4150-1.3495) would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later. A break of minor support at 1.3635-40 would signal top is formed and then test of yesterday’s low at 1.3591 would follow, below there would confirm and extend weakness to indicated support at 1.3556-58. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to edge higher on renewed talk of eurozone common bond and support of Greek debt effort from German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy, offers and stops at 1.3750 were triggered, however, price faltered below indicated offers at 1.3790/00 and has retreated from 1.3784 (yesterday’s high). Fresh round of rumors is on downgrade of Italy and is likely to put some pressure on euro, however, some bids are tipped at 1.3690-1.3700, 1.3640-50 and further out at 1.3600 with stops placed below 1.3590 and more at 1.3550 with sizeable stops located below 1.3490. Option expires today include 1.3750 (100 mln), 1.3760 (400 mln) and 1.3800 (100 mln). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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