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Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Firmer and Focus Turns to Non-Farm PayrollsDollar is mildly firmer in Asian session, along with Swiss Franc and Yen, as markets become cautious ahead of job data from US today. Asian equities are broadly lower, following -1% fall in DOW overnight, as traders take profit ahead of this important piece of economic data. Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show 90k expansion in August while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.1%. The leading indicators to NFP were mixed. ADP showed 91k rise in private jobs but it has been a rather poor indicator for NFP in recent months. Four weeks moving average of initial claims remained elevated above 400k level. Employment component of ISM manufacturing continued to deteriorate in August and fell to 51.8. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4194; (P) 1.4290 (R1) 1.4354; More. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and further fall should be seen to 1.4054 support first. Break there will bring deeper decline to 1.3837 key support level. On the upside, above 1.4315 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But after all, as EUR/USD is still staying below 1.4577 resistance, consolidation from 1.4939 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would be seen in near term. |
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China Watch: Rebound in China's PMI Triggers No Change in Monetary PolicyChina's PMI climbed +0.2 points higher to 50.9 in August. While the data came in slightly higher than market expectations, the detailed report evidenced that the momentum of manufacturing activities has weakened when compared with the same period last year. China's exports sector has also been affected by the headwind faced in advanced economies. The risk of inflation remains as input prices unexpectedly rebounded during the month. Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated yesterday that stabilizing overall price levels remains the top priority task of the government. In light of heightening risks of global economic slowdown, we doubt if the government will roll out more tightening measures. Yet, a reversal of policies implemented also appears unlikely. Central Bank Forecasts: BOJ's Stance To Remain Accommodative After The New PMWe don't expect the monetary policy in Japan will change after the new Prime Minister on board. With economic growth remaining sluggish and deflation still a threat, the BOJ will leave the policy rate at virtually 0% at least until 2012. The central bank will also maintain the asset-purchase program and may expand the scope of assets if necessary. With regard to yen's strength, we believe the government has not given up intervention though the impacts so far have not been significant. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4380 or buy at 1.4175As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting the decline from this week’s high of 1.4550 is still in progress and below yesterday’s low at 1.4227 would extend weakness to 1.4200, however, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside and reckon previous support at 1.4150 would hold and bring rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.55Dollar’s near term sideways trading is likely to continue and although cross-buying in yen is likely to keep price under pressure, as long as support at 76.42 holds, prospect of another rebound remains. A sustained break of resistance at 77.25 would suggest the retreat from 77.70 has possibly ended and bring further gain towards 77.70. Looking ahead, once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm the rise from 75.94 record low for a stronger retracement of recent downtrend to resistance at 77.86 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite edging higher this morning in Asia on talk of buying by Asian CB and EUR/JPY fixing demand, the single currency met fresh offers around 1.4285/90 and has fallen on back of weakness in Asian equities. Stops below yesterday's low of 1.4227 are in focus, however, bids are still noted at 1.4240-50 and more buying interests from Asian CB and European names are reported at 1.4200 (related to 1.42 option barrier) with more stops seen below there. We also expect option related bids in 1.41 area to protect the large DNT option 1.41-1.46 and heard that option players are accumulating 1-month euro put option. Traders may not be too aggressive to sell euro ahead of the release of eurozone PPI data at 09:00GMT. On the upside, offers are still noted at 1.4280-90 and mixture of offers and stops is seen at 1.4310-20 and further out at 1.4380-90. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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