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Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower Despite Surge in CPI, Dollar FirmEuro is broadly lower today even though September flash CPI jumped to a near three year high of 3% yoy. Sentiments was weighed down by German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler's comment that even though the parliament approved a boost the the EFSF yesterday, they might not be willing to leverage the fund. Major European indices lose growth as the quarter end approaches with FTSE down -1.5%, DAX down -2.9%, CAC down -2.5% at the time of writing. EUR/USD loses 1.35 handle and is likely heading back to 1.3363 recent low. EUR/GBP also breaks a minor support at 0.8651 and is heading back to recent low of 0.8529. Also released from Eurozone, unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0% in August. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3516; (P) 1.3598 (R1) 1.3676; More. EUR/USD's break of 1.3477 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.3362 is finished at 1.3689. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.3362 first. break will confirm resumption of recent decline and should target 161.8% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3969 from 1.4548 at 1.2979, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, above 1.3689 will delay the bearish case and bring another recovery. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.3936 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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ECB To Cut Or Not?The annual World Bank/IMF meeting indeed showed some influences by urging European leaders to deliver more effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis engulfing the Eurozone. Apart from heightening speculations for an expansion and leverage of the new EFSF, hopes loomed for the ECB to cut interest rates, as soon as at the meeting next week, in addition to other easing measures including re-launch of the covered bond purchase program and reintroduction of the 12-month loans for the region's banks. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to move lower throughout the day on stop-hunting activities, stops below 1.3470 were triggered, selling in EUR/CHF by European names also put pressure on euro and more stops are reported at 1.3410-20 with mixture of bids (from Middle East names in good size) and stops seen further out at 1.3350-60. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3500-20 and further out at 1.3550-60 with stops building up above 1.3570 and also 1.3605/10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3595As the single currency has remained under pressure after breaking support at 1.3520, suggesting the rebound from this week’s low at 1.3360 has possibly ended at 1.3690 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for further weakness to 1.3480/85 and possibly to 1.3450, however, as broad outlook is consolidative, reckon downside would be limited and 1.3400/10 would hold, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold short entered at 104.50Despite yesterday’s rebound to 104.93, as euro has retreated after faltering below this week’s high of 104.96, retaining our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for another decline, break of minor support at 103.31 would suggest top is possibly formed and bring further fall to 102.80/85 but a sustained breach there is needed to suggest the rebound from 101.95 has possibly ended and bring retest of this level. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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