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Daily Report: NZD Lower after Downgrade, Dollar Building Up MomentumNew Zealand dollar is noticeably lower in another quiet Asian session after rating downgrade. Meanwhile, exporters buying send Japanese yen generally higher. Sentiments are still weak in the markets but was somewhat steady as the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.9 in September. Technically speaking, major currencies' recovery against dollar has been losing momentum and there are signs of selloff resumption. USD/CAD takes the lead by breaking 1.0390 resistance. We'll see if dollar regains momentum against as the quarter closes. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0276; (P) 1.0338; (R1) 1.0421; More. USD/CAD rises to as high as 1.0407 so far today and the break of 1.0385 indicates that recent rebound from 0.9406 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.0009 from 0.9725 at 1.0701 next. On the downside, below 1.0256 minor support will turn bias neutral. Further break of 1.0142 support will suggest short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring deeper pull back. |
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| Special Report |
ECB To Cut Or Not?The annual World Bank/IMF meeting indeed showed some influences by urging European leaders to deliver more effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis engulfing the Eurozone. Apart from heightening speculations for an expansion and leverage of the new EFSF, hopes loomed for the ECB to cut interest rates, as soon as at the meeting next week, in addition to other easing measures including re-launch of the covered bond purchase program and reintroduction of the 12-month loans for the region's banks. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's rise on news that German parliament passed the EFSF bill, as indicated in our previous update that traders already priced in this vote outcome and took profit on longs thereafter. The single currency then retreated on report that ecofin meeting on 3 Oct would not decide on EFSF expansion, Fitch's downgrading of New Zealand rating also put pressure on euro. Stops below 1.3590 and 1.3550 were triggered but decent demand is still seen at 1.3520 with more stops seen below 1.3500, 1.3470 and 1.3450. On the upside, offers are lined up from 1.3590-00 up to 1.3650 with sizeable offers remain at 1.3690 with stops only emerging above 1.3700-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5575Despite yesterday’s brief breach of previous resistance at 1.5705, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest caution on our long position entered at 1.5575 and support at 1.5544 needs to hold for prospect of another rebound to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.5603-16) and then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5635). Break there would suggest low is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 1.5716 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3595Despite yesterday’s rebound from 1.3520 to 1.3679, the subsequent selloff after faltering below this week’s high of 1.3690 and price just broke below said support, suggesting the rebound from 1.3360 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for further weakness to 1.3480/85 and possibly to 1.3450, however, as broad outlook is consolidative, reckon downside would be limited and 1.3400/10 would hold, bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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