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Mid-Day Report: Risk Sentiments Stabilized ahead of Tomorrow's FOMC, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB RumorRisk aversion recedes mildly in early US session as traders are starting to lighten up positions ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement. Mixed housing data from US provides no inspiration to the markets. Housing starts dropped -5% to 571k annualized rate in August. However, building permits unexpectedly rose 3.2% to 620k annualized rate. Canadian leading indictor was flat mom in August while whole sale sales rose 0.8% mom in July. Released earlier today, German ZEW economic sentiments dropped less than expected to -43.4 in September but Eurozone ZEW dropped more than expected to -44.6. Swiss trade surplus narrowed to CHF 0.81b in August. German PPI dropped -0.3% mom in August, up 5.5% yoy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Mid-Day OutlookEUR/CHF spikes higher to 1.2213 today on rumor that SNB could raise the floor from 1.2 to 1.22, or even 1.25 tomorrow. The break of 1.2190 resistance argue that rise from 1.0061 might be resuming. But we'd prefer to see sustained trading above 1.22 level to confirm. In that case, EUR/CHF should head towards 1.2399 support turned resistance. Meanwhile, if SNB disappoints tomorrow, EUR/CHF could dropped back to prior range but again, SNB has made it clear about their intention to keep a floor at 1.2 and any decline attempt should be contained by this level. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.8790, the Swiss franc tumbled on speculation that SNB may raise EUR/CHF floor again tomorrow, probably from 1.2000 to 1.2500. Although the central bank declined to comment, USD/CHF broke through resistance at 0.8875-79 and indicated stops at 0.8880/85 were triggered, price rose to an intra-day high of 0.8922 but offers are still noted ahead of recent high of 0.8927 (one should note that EUR/CHF already broke previous post minimum rate high of 1.2200 to as high as 1.2215. Stops remain above 0.8930 and if those stops are triggered, USD/CHF may surge to next upside focus at 0.9000. A large Swiss name was seen buying USD/CHF and EUR/CHF and bids are still noted from 0.8850 down to 0.8820 with stops building up below intra-day low of 0.8790. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8800Despite intra-day marginal fall to 0.8790, as the greenback found renewed buying interest there and has rebounded in line with our expectation, retaining our bullishness for test of indicated resistance at 0.8880/85, however, a sustained break above there is needed to add credence to our view that correction from recent high of 0.8927 has ended at 0.8647 last week and bring resumption of early upmove for a retest of 0.8927 Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3700As the single currency has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.3700 and previous support at 1.3753 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another retreat later, break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3665) would suggest top is possibly formed and bring another fall to yesterday’s low at 1.3586. Once this level is penetrated, this would extend the decline from 1.3937 to indicated previous support at 1.3556-58 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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