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Daily Report: Euro Soft after Italy Downgrade, Greece Talk ContinuesEuro remains generally weak after S&P downgraded Italy's credit rating. Also there are rumors that a major China bank has stopped foreign exchange swaps with several European banks in response to recent downgrades. Though, there was some relief as Greece said the country is close to getting the next tranche of bailout funds after a conference call with the international lenders. Dollar is steady on risk aversion and as FOMC will start its two days meeting today. Yen is also firm on news that the Japanese government is going to unveil some measures to cushion the image of its strength. Australia dollar stabilizes a bit as RBA minutes signals that the bank is in no hurry to cut rates. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.01; (P) 104.75; (R1) 105.55; More Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with focus on 103.88 support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 123.31 and should target medium term projection level at 103.42 first. On the upside, above 105.27 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and extend the consolidation pattern from 103.88. Nevertheless, even in case of another recovery, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 108.01 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption eventually. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Bernanke To Add Stimulus. No QE3 YetThe most critical event this week is definitely the 2-day FOMC meeting on September 20-21. At the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the meeting has been scheduled to 2 days (originally 1day) so that 'a fuller discussion'; on 'a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus'; is warranted. Also indicated in the August FOMC statement, the September meeting should be extended as policymakers need more time to discussion about 'the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools';. It would be anticlimactic if nothing happens at the meeting. As unveiled in the August FOMC minutes, the range of tools discussed among members included reinforcing forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy, additional asset purchases, increasing the average maturity of securities holdings, reducing the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances. Yet, no preference was indicated. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback fell quite sharply yesterday also on risk aversion as global equities dropped in the red zone, stops below 76.50 and 76.40 were triggered, however, dollar found fresh demand overnight and has rebounded from 76.32. Although the pair bounced this morning to 76.77 on fixing demand, price dropped from there again due to lack of action from Japanese officials. U.S. names were seen selling the pair since yesterday and offers from them and Japanese exporters are reported at 76.70-80 and also 77.00 with some stops placed above latter level. On the downside, bids remain at 76.30 (for protection of 76.25 barrier) with more stops seen below 76.20 and 75.90. Option expires today include 76.00 (100 mln), 76.85 (100 mln), 77.30 (100 mln) and 77.50 (100 mln). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5740Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline to 1.5632, as cable has rebounded from there on short-covering, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5753) and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent decline to 1.5600, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 1.5550/55 would hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3700Despite yesterday’s fall to 1.3586, as the single currency then rebounded, suggesting further consolidation would take place and as long as this support holds, another bounce to 1.3700 cannot be ruled out, however, overnight resistance at 1.3721 should limit upside, bring another decline. A sustained breach of said support would extend weakness to indicated previous support at 1.3556-58, however, a drop below there is needed to confirm correction from 1.3495 has ended and bring resumption of early decline for a retest of 1.3495. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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