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Daily Report: Markets Remain Risk-Off after German Merkel's Defeated in Local ElectionsRisk aversion dominates the markets today as Asian equities open broadly lower follow the employment data triggered sharp fall in US stocks last Friday. There are also fresh concerns over the situation in Europe after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling party, losses support in a local election in Merkel's home state. The center-left Social Democrats won 35.7% of Sunday's vote while support of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union slid to 23.1%. Investors are also cautious ahead of an eventful week and Europe, where German court will rule on bailout, ECB will discuss Italy bond-buying and Greece will find out bone swap interest. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6171; (P) 1.6212; (R1) 1.6253; More. GBP/USD's fall from 1.6618 resumes after brief consolidation an intraday bias is back of the downside for deeper fall. Break of 1.6110 support will confirm that whole rebound from 1.5780 is finished and should bring further decline to retest this key support level. On the upside, above 1.6253 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But risk of another fall will remain as long as 1.6545 resistance holds. |
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| Special Reports |
BOC Withholds From Signaling TighteningRecent headwind in global economic outlook should deter BOC's tightening schedule. We believe the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% in September. Indeed, Fed's decision to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least until mid-2013 and the increasing downside risks to inflation signaled the BOC will leave the overnight rate unchanged at least until mid -2012. That said, it's also unlikely for the central bank to trim interest rates as headline inflation remains high and the job market is robust. RBA To Pause For The Rest Of The YearThe RBA will likely be on hold at the September meeting. Indeed, the central bank is now expected to leave interest rates unchanged longer than previously expected. Some market participants even bet a rate cut later in the year after the governor's testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. The latest Credit Suisse swap index shows the market has priced in -114 bps rate cut by the RBA over a year. We have not yet changed our monetary forecast from tightening to easing. However, we do expect the central bank will not raise interest rate anymore at for the rest of the year. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6220Although cable opened lower this morning, a break of last week’s low of 1.6132 is needed to confirm recent decline from 1.6618 top has resumed and extend further weakness to previous support at 1.6111 but near term oversold condition would limit downside to another previous support at 1.6069 and reckon 1.6044 (100% projection of 1.6618-1.6207 measuring from 1.6455) would hold from here, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4180As the single currency has remained under pressure after opening lower this week, suggesting last week’s selloff is still in progress and test of previous support at 1.4104 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon another previous support at 1.4055 would hold from here, bring a rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Despite initial brief bounce to an intra-day high of 76.96, once again the greenback ran into heavy offers from exporters ahead of 77.00 and has retreated on risk aversion due to weakness in Asian equities. More selling interest is tipped at 77.20 with buy stop orders remain at 77.30 but offers from same parties should emerge again from 77.50 up to 77.70 with next stops located at 77.80 and above 78.00. On the downside, bids from Japanese margin accounts and importers are still noted at 76.50-60 with stops planted below 76.40, 76.20 and large stops are tipped below 75.90. EUR/JPY also extended last week's decline and stops below 108.80 were triggered, more stops below 108.50 are in focus but bids are likely to emerge around 108.00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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