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Mid-Day Report: Currency Markets Steady While Risk Aversion Still Dominates ElsewhereRisk aversion continues to dominate most markets even though it's relatively calm in FX. More negative news come out of Eurozone today after Moody's downgraded eight Greek by by two notches on their exposure to Greek government bonds. Also, Moody's cited cited "the expected impact of the deteriorating domestic economic environment on non-performing loans" and "declines in deposit bases and still fragile liquidity positions" in its reasoning. In particular, note that two of them, Emporiki Bank of Greece and General Bank of Greece are majority owned by French banks Credit Agricole and Societe Generale respectively. Meanwhile, the index of CDS on 25 banks and insurers in Europe jumped to new record high. CDS on Germany, France, Italy and Spain sovereign debt also rose to records. German two year yield dropped further to new record low of 0.25%. Major European indices reversed earlier gains and are deep in red at the time of writing while US stock futures point to another deep lower opening. Markets are in general still under much pressure. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5272; (P) 1.5395; (R1) 1.5463; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place at 1.5327 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations would be seen but recovery should be limited below 1.5868 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5327 will target 161.8% projection of 1.6746 to 1.5780 from 1.6618 at 1.5055 next. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Announced Active Operation TwistAs expected, the Fed announced to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities so as to stimulate the economic recovery and to help ensure inflation is consistent with the dual mandate over time. The operation twist that the Fed adopts is an active one. It involves selling $400B of Treasury securities with maturities of 3 years or less and simultaneous purchase of a similar amount of Treasuries in the 6-30 year remaining maturity range. The Fed funds rate was keep unchanged at 0-0.25%. 3 Fed presidents who voted against additional policy easing were Richard Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles Plosser. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped in European session on risk aversion partly due to early losses in Dow futures, however, talk of ECB may take action in Spanish bonds lifted the pair just now, macro funds and real money accounts were seen buying euro below 1.3450 and bids from there are still noted from 1.3430 down to 1.3400 with stops building up below 1.3380 and further out at 1.3350 (option barrier). On the upside, offers are still noted at 1.3500 and also 1.3550-60 with stops placed above 1.3570 and also 1.3600-10. Medium size option at 1.3500 will expire today at New York cut. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5535Although cable has retreated after intra-day bounce to 1.5472, as the British pound has rebounded again after holding above indicated minor support at 1.5370/75, suggesting further consolidation would take place and another bounce to said resistance cannot be ruled out, break there would bring retracement to 1.5508 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5690-1.5326) and possibly 1.5534-37 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5747-1.5326). Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0085Despite yesterday’s selloff to 0.9692, as aussie has finally rebounded after holding above this level today, suggesting consolidation would take place and retracement to 0.9962 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0399-0.9692) would be seen, however, upside should be limited to 1.0045/50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0080/90, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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